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INFOGRAPHIC: Platts Chicago, T2 Ethanol benchmark tracker – S&P Global

The Unseen Pulse of Biofuel Markets: Unpacking the Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol Benchmark

In the intricate global web of energy commodities, ethanol stands as a pivotal player, bridging the gap between agriculture and the relentless demand for transportation fuels. As a primary renewable fuel source, its market dynamics are complex, influenced by everything from crop yields to geopolitical shifts. At the heart of understanding these dynamics, particularly within the crucial North American market, lies the Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark. Published by S&P Global Platts, a leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets, this benchmark serves as a vital barometer for market participants, offering unparalleled transparency and liquidity to a multi-billion-dollar industry.

The significance of a robust, reliable benchmark cannot be overstated. For producers, blenders, traders, and policymakers alike, the Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol tracker provides a standardized reference point, facilitating price discovery, risk management, and strategic decision-making. It’s more than just a number; it’s a reflection of supply and demand fundamentals, logistical challenges, and the broader economic landscape that dictates the flow and value of this critical biofuel. This article delves deep into the world of Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol, exploring its fundamental importance, the methodology behind its assessment, the myriad factors that influence its price, and its far-reaching implications for the energy sector and beyond.

Table of Contents

Ethanol: A Cornerstone of Renewable Energy

Ethanol, chemically known as ethyl alcohol, has long served humanity in various capacities, but its modern prominence stems from its role as a biofuel. Primarily produced through the fermentation of biomass—most notably corn in the United States and sugarcane in Brazil—it offers a domestically produced, renewable alternative to fossil fuels. The journey from agricultural product to liquid fuel is a testament to innovative chemistry and engineering, transforming simple sugars into a powerful energy source that can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security.

The Role of Ethanol in the Global Energy Mix

Globally, ethanol is predominantly used as an octane enhancer and an oxygenate in gasoline. Its high octane rating allows for higher compression ratios in engines, leading to improved efficiency and performance. As an oxygenate, it helps gasoline burn more completely, reducing tailpipe emissions of pollutants like carbon monoxide and unburnt hydrocarbons. In the U.S., virtually all gasoline sold contains up to 10% ethanol (E10), and blends like E15 (15% ethanol) and E85 (up to 85% ethanol) are becoming more common, particularly in flex-fuel vehicles. This widespread integration is largely due to government mandates like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in the United States, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and expand the nation’s renewable fuels sector.

Beyond its traditional role, ethanol is also being explored for advanced applications, including as a feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and as a building block for various biochemicals. These emerging uses highlight its versatility and potential to contribute to a broader decarbonization strategy, moving beyond just light-duty transportation. The geopolitical implications of ethanol are also profound, as it provides a domestic fuel source, reducing reliance on imported petroleum and contributing to national energy independence. This strategic value, combined with its environmental benefits, firmly entrenches ethanol as a critical component of the ongoing global energy transition.

Understanding T2 Ethanol

Within the diverse grades of ethanol, “T2 Ethanol” refers specifically to technical grade ethanol, which, when denatured, is primarily used for fuel blending. The ‘T2’ designation historically referred to a specific terminal or pipeline system where the product was traded and measured. Today, in the context of the Platts Chicago T2 benchmark, it has evolved to represent a specific quality and deliverability standard for fuel ethanol, typically denatured anhydrous ethanol, intended for blending into gasoline. This grade is characterized by precise specifications concerning purity, moisture content, and other parameters that ensure its suitability for gasoline engines and compliance with environmental regulations.

The market for T2 ethanol is highly liquid and competitive, with numerous producers, refiners, blenders, and traders actively participating. The physical product is moved via various transportation modes, including rail, barge, and truck, and to a lesser extent, dedicated pipelines, from production facilities in the Midwest to consumption hubs across the country. The Chicago market, given its strategic location as a nexus for corn production, ethanol plants, and transportation infrastructure, has naturally emerged as a critical pricing point for T2 ethanol. Understanding the nuances of T2 ethanol quality and delivery is essential for market participants, as variations can impact both price and usability.

The Power of Benchmarks in Commodity Markets

In the vast and often opaque world of commodity trading, benchmarks serve as indispensable guideposts. They provide a common language and a universally accepted reference point for pricing, enabling efficient commerce and risk management across diverse markets. Without reliable benchmarks, transactions would be fraught with uncertainty, increasing costs and hindering the smooth operation of global supply chains. The development and maintenance of robust benchmarks, therefore, are critical functions performed by specialized organizations like S&P Global Platts.

What is a Benchmark and Why is it Crucial?

A commodity benchmark is a transparent, widely accepted price reference that reflects the fair market value of a specific commodity at a particular location and time. It is typically derived from observed market activity—bids, offers, and confirmed trades—and is published regularly, often daily. The crucial role of benchmarks can be broken down into several key areas:

  • Price Discovery: Benchmarks provide a clear, public signal of prevailing market prices, helping buyers and sellers to arrive at mutually agreeable transaction terms. They reduce information asymmetry and promote efficient price formation.
  • Risk Management: Market participants use benchmarks to hedge against price volatility. Futures and options contracts are often settled against these benchmarks, allowing companies to lock in prices or protect against adverse price movements.
  • Contractual Basis: Physical supply contracts frequently reference benchmarks, with prices agreed upon as a differential (e.g., “benchmark plus X cents” or “benchmark minus Y cents”). This simplifies contract negotiations and provides a standardized mechanism for price adjustments.
  • Investment and Finance: Financial institutions use benchmarks to value portfolios, assess credit risk, and create investment products tied to commodity performance.
  • Market Transparency and Integrity: Independent benchmark providers, through their rigorous methodologies, bring transparency to otherwise complex markets, fostering trust and discouraging manipulative practices.

The credibility of a benchmark hinges on its representativeness, its ability to reflect genuine market sentiment, and the independence and expertise of the assessing agency. A benchmark that is not widely used or trusted by the market will quickly lose its utility.

Why Chicago? The Epicenter of US Ethanol

The choice of Chicago as the focal point for the Platts T2 Ethanol benchmark is not arbitrary; it’s a strategic decision rooted in the geography and infrastructure of the U.S. ethanol industry. The Midwest, often referred to as the “Corn Belt,” is the dominant region for corn production in the United States. Since corn is the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol, the vast majority of ethanol production facilities are concentrated in states like Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota, all within close proximity to Chicago.

Chicago itself serves as a critical transportation and trading hub. It boasts an extensive network of railways, including major Class I railroads that connect the Midwest to the East and West Coasts. The city is also a significant node for trucking and has access to inland waterways, facilitating the movement of ethanol to various blending terminals and export markets. Furthermore, Chicago has a rich history as a commodity trading center, home to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and other financial exchanges, which has fostered a sophisticated ecosystem of traders, brokers, and logistics providers. This confluence of production capacity, robust transportation infrastructure, and an established trading community makes Chicago the logical and most liquid pricing point for U.S. ethanol, providing the depth and breadth of market activity necessary for a reliable benchmark assessment.

S&P Global Platts: Methodology and Market Transparency

S&P Global Platts has long been revered as a standard-bearer in commodity price assessments. Its reputation for independence, rigor, and transparency is foundational to its role in influencing global energy and commodity markets. The Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark is a prime example of its commitment to providing accurate and actionable market intelligence, enabling fair and efficient trading in the biofuel sector.

The Platts Approach to Price Assessment

Platts employs a meticulous and widely respected methodology, often referred to as “Market-on-Close” (MOC) or “End-of-Day” assessments. This process involves a team of experienced market reporters actively gathering information throughout the trading day, with particular intensity during a specific, defined assessment window (e.g., the last 30 or 60 minutes of the trading day). During this window, Platts reporters collect and analyze a multitude of data points:

  • Bids and Offers: These are firm indications from buyers and sellers of their willingness to buy or sell at specific prices.
  • Confirmed Trades: Actual transactions executed between market participants, providing direct evidence of market value.
  • Spreads and Differentials: Prices relative to other benchmarks or locations, offering context and arbitrage opportunities.
  • Market Commentary: Qualitative information and sentiment from market participants, including supply/demand forecasts, logistical updates, and regulatory outlooks.

Platts reporters apply a “willing buyer, willing seller” principle, seeking to identify the most representative, tradeable price at the close of the market. They use professional judgment to discern between firm, actionable prices and more speculative indications, prioritizing confirmed trades where available. The methodology is designed to capture the true liquidity and market sentiment, not just isolated transactions. This granular, real-time data collection, combined with expert analysis, allows Platts to publish daily assessments that reflect the prevailing market value of T2 ethanol in Chicago.

Ensuring Integrity and Credibility

The integrity and credibility of Platts’ benchmarks are paramount. To maintain these, several robust measures are in place:

  • Code of Conduct: Platts reporters adhere to a strict code of conduct, emphasizing impartiality, accuracy, and ethical behavior. They are prohibited from trading in the markets they assess.
  • Transparency: Platts’ methodologies are publicly available and subject to industry consultation, ensuring that all market participants understand how the benchmarks are derived. They publish “Methodology Guides” for each assessment.
  • Regulatory Compliance: As a global benchmark provider, Platts operates under the scrutiny of various regulatory bodies worldwide, ensuring compliance with relevant financial and commodity market regulations.
  • Market Engagement: Platts actively engages with market participants through forums, conferences, and direct communication to solicit feedback, understand evolving market structures, and refine methodologies as needed. This continuous dialogue ensures the benchmarks remain relevant and representative.
  • Data Governance and Audit Trails: Comprehensive records of all observed market activity, including bids, offers, and trades, are maintained. This allows for internal and external auditing of the assessment process, reinforcing accuracy and accountability.

These stringent measures collectively underpin the trust that billions of dollars in physical and financial contracts place in Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol, solidifying its position as a cornerstone of the biofuel trading ecosystem.

Key Drivers of T2 Ethanol Prices

The price of Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol is not static; it is a dynamic reflection of numerous interconnected factors that influence both supply and demand. Understanding these drivers is crucial for anyone involved in the ethanol market, from farmers to fuel blenders to policy analysts.

Feedstock Dynamics: The Price of Corn

For U.S. ethanol, the most significant input cost is corn. Approximately 40% of the U.S. corn crop goes into ethanol production. Therefore, fluctuations in corn prices directly impact the profitability of ethanol producers and, consequently, the price of ethanol. Factors influencing corn prices include:

  • Weather Patterns: Droughts, floods, or extreme temperatures in the Corn Belt can significantly affect crop yields, leading to tighter supply and higher corn prices.
  • Global Demand for Corn: Demand from livestock feed, other industrial uses, and international trade (e.g., China’s demand) can compete with ethanol production for available corn supplies.
  • Government Agricultural Policies: Subsidies, crop insurance, and land-use policies can indirectly influence corn planting decisions and prices.
  • Energy Costs for Farming: The price of diesel and natural gas impacts farmers’ planting and harvesting costs, which can be passed on to corn prices.

When corn prices rise, ethanol producers face higher production costs, which they typically pass on to the market, leading to an increase in T2 ethanol prices, assuming demand remains constant. Conversely, abundant corn harvests and lower prices tend to depress ethanol prices.

Demand-Side Factors: Gasoline Blending and Mandates

The primary demand for T2 ethanol comes from gasoline blenders and refiners. The volume of ethanol blended is driven by several factors:

  • Gasoline Consumption: Overall gasoline demand, influenced by economic activity, travel patterns, and vehicle fuel efficiency, directly impacts the need for blendstock ethanol. During periods of economic growth and increased driving, ethanol demand tends to rise.
  • Ethanol Blend Wall: The “blend wall” refers to the point where the market’s ability to absorb more ethanol into gasoline is constrained, primarily by the widespread adoption of E10 and the limited infrastructure for higher blends like E15 and E85. Exceeding this “wall” becomes challenging without significant policy or infrastructure changes.
  • Refinery Optimization: Refiners constantly optimize their blending strategies based on crude oil prices, gasoline specifications, and the cost of various blend components, including ethanol. Ethanol’s high octane rating and competitive price can make it an attractive blendstock.
  • Export Markets: While the U.S. is a major consumer, it is also a significant exporter of ethanol. Global demand, particularly from countries with nascent biofuel mandates or those seeking to reduce their carbon footprint, can provide an important outlet for surplus U.S. production, impacting domestic pricing.

Regulatory and Policy Impacts: The Renewable Fuel Standard

The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is perhaps the single most influential policy driver for the U.S. ethanol market. The RFS mandates that a certain volume of renewable fuels be blended into the nation’s transportation fuel supply each year. Key aspects include:

  • Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs): The EPA sets annual RVOs, specifying the total volume of renewable fuels, including conventional corn ethanol, that must be blended. These targets directly dictate the demand floor for ethanol.
  • RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers): To track compliance, each gallon of renewable fuel produced or imported generates a RIN. Obligated parties (refiners and importers) must acquire and retire sufficient RINs to meet their RVOs. The price of RINs is a critical component of the RFS mechanism. High RIN prices can incentivize blending, while low prices might reduce the economic incentive.
  • Waivers and Exemptions: The EPA can issue small refinery exemptions (SREs) or adjust RVOs, which can significantly impact ethanol demand and, consequently, prices. Policy uncertainty surrounding the RFS can introduce considerable volatility into the market.

Changes in RFS mandates, the issuance of waivers, or shifts in the RIN market can have immediate and profound effects on the demand for ethanol and its price, often overriding other fundamental factors in the short term.

Logistics and Infrastructure: The Flow of Fuel

The cost and efficiency of transporting ethanol from production sites to consumption markets play a crucial role in pricing. The geographical separation between the Corn Belt production hub and coastal consumption centers means transportation costs are a significant component of the final price. Factors here include:

  • Transportation Modes: Rail, barges, and trucks are the primary means. Each has different costs, capacities, and lead times. Congestion on rail lines, low water levels in rivers impacting barge traffic, or truck driver shortages can increase logistics costs.
  • Fuel Prices: The cost of diesel for transportation directly impacts the cost of moving ethanol, creating a feedback loop where rising energy prices increase both production and distribution costs.
  • Storage Capacity: The availability and cost of storage at key terminals and production sites can affect inventory levels and the ability to manage supply effectively.
  • Pipeline Access: While limited for ethanol compared to petroleum, existing pipeline infrastructure or proposals for new lines can significantly alter transport economics.

Any disruption or increase in the cost of logistics can translate into higher delivered prices for ethanol and affect differentials between various market hubs, including Chicago.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Influences

Ethanol prices are also susceptible to broader economic and geopolitical forces:

  • Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: While ethanol is a substitute for gasoline, its price often correlates with crude oil and gasoline prices. When gasoline prices are high, ethanol becomes more competitive, increasing demand. Conversely, cheap gasoline can make ethanol less attractive to blenders unless mandated by policy.
  • U.S. Dollar Strength: As a commodity priced in U.S. dollars, a stronger dollar makes U.S. ethanol more expensive for international buyers, potentially reducing export demand. A weaker dollar has the opposite effect.
  • Global Economic Outlook: Recessions or booms impact overall energy demand, which trickles down to gasoline and, by extension, ethanol consumption.
  • Trade Policy and Tariffs: Trade disputes or tariffs imposed by importing countries can restrict market access for U.S. ethanol, leading to oversupply domestically and downward price pressure.

These complex interdependencies mean that forecasting ethanol prices requires a holistic view, integrating agricultural data, energy market fundamentals, regulatory insights, and macroeconomic trends.

Impact and Implications of the Platts Chicago T2 Benchmark

The Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark is far more than a simple data point; it is a critical piece of infrastructure for the entire biofuel supply chain. Its influence permeates various facets of the industry, guiding decisions and shaping outcomes for a diverse array of stakeholders.

For Producers and Refiners

  • Price Discovery and Sales: Ethanol producers, primarily located in the Midwest, rely on the benchmark to price their product accurately. Most supply contracts with blenders and distributors will reference the Platts Chicago T2 price, adjusted for quality, freight, and specific delivery points. This ensures producers are receiving a fair market price for their output.
  • Profitability and Investment Decisions: Producers constantly monitor the “crush spread” – the difference between the price of ethanol and its co-products (DDGS, corn oil) and the cost of corn and natural gas. The Platts benchmark is essential for calculating this spread, informing decisions on production rates, plant expansions, and new investments. A healthy crush spread indicates profitability and encourages increased production.
  • Risk Management and Hedging: Ethanol producers face significant price volatility for both their feedstock (corn) and their finished product (ethanol). They use the Platts benchmark, often in conjunction with CME futures contracts (which are frequently settled or referenced against Platts assessments), to hedge their price exposure, locking in margins and reducing financial risk.
  • Procurement Strategies: Refiners and blenders use the benchmark to make informed purchasing decisions for their ethanol needs. They can compare the benchmark against alternative suppliers or other blend components to optimize their feedstock costs.

For Traders and Investors

  • Trading Strategies: Commodity traders, whether physical or financial, utilize the Platts Chicago T2 benchmark extensively. They seek to profit from price differentials across locations, time, or grades (arbitrage), or to speculate on future price movements. The benchmark provides the foundational price upon which these strategies are built.
  • Portfolio Valuation: Investors in commodity funds, biofuel companies, or agricultural ETFs rely on transparent ethanol pricing to value their assets and assess market performance. Financial derivatives tied to ethanol also use the benchmark for settlement and marking-to-market.
  • Market Intelligence: The detailed reporting accompanying the Platts assessments provides traders and investors with invaluable market intelligence, helping them understand underlying supply/demand fundamentals, logistical constraints, and emerging trends.

For Policymakers and Regulators

  • Policy Evaluation: Government agencies, such as the EPA and USDA, use benchmark data to monitor the health and efficiency of the ethanol market. This data is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of policies like the RFS, assessing their impact on fuel prices, agricultural markets, and energy security.
  • Market Oversight: Regulators rely on independent benchmarks to ensure market integrity and detect potential manipulation. The transparency provided by Platts’ methodology contributes to a fair and competitive trading environment.
  • Economic Analysis: Economists and analysts within government and academic institutions use the benchmark for broader economic modeling, assessing the impact of biofuel production on food prices, rural economies, and environmental objectives.

Broader Market and Consumer Effects

  • Gasoline Price Impact: While indirect, fluctuations in the Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark can eventually influence pump prices for gasoline. As ethanol is a significant blend component, its cost contributes to the overall cost of gasoline production.
  • Agricultural Sector Stability: The stability and transparency offered by the benchmark contribute to the overall stability of the agricultural sector, particularly for corn farmers who rely on ethanol demand.
  • Energy Security and Environmental Goals: By enabling an efficient and transparent ethanol market, the benchmark indirectly supports national energy security goals (reduced reliance on foreign oil) and environmental objectives (reduced greenhouse gas emissions).

In essence, the Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark acts as a central nervous system for the biofuel industry, transmitting vital information that allows the entire ecosystem to function efficiently and adapt to changing conditions.

The ethanol market is in a continuous state of evolution, shaped by technological innovation, shifting policy landscapes, and evolving global energy demands. While the Platts Chicago T2 benchmark provides a snapshot of current market realities, understanding broader trends is crucial for anticipating the future trajectory of this vital biofuel.

Evolving Demand Patterns

Historically, the primary demand driver for U.S. ethanol has been domestic gasoline blending, largely due to the RFS. However, several trends are beginning to alter this landscape:

  • Electrification of Transport: The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses a long-term challenge to liquid transportation fuels, including ethanol. As the global fleet transitions towards EVs, gasoline consumption is projected to decline, potentially reducing the overall demand for ethanol in conventional blends.
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Ethanol is emerging as a promising feedstock for SAF production. Technologies are developing to convert ethanol into jet fuel, offering a pathway to decarbonize the aviation sector, which is notoriously difficult to electrify. This could open up a significant new, high-value market for ethanol, potentially shifting its demand profile away from pure gasoline blending.
  • Global Biofuel Mandates: While the U.S. RFS has been a cornerstone, other countries are implementing or strengthening their own biofuel mandates. Growing international demand, particularly from Asia and Latin America, could increase U.S. ethanol exports, providing an important outlet amidst potentially flattening domestic demand.
  • High-Octane Fuels: Research into high-octane, low-carbon fuels for internal combustion engines (ICEs) that will remain on the road for decades could also present opportunities for ethanol, which is an excellent octane enhancer.

Technological Advancements and Sustainability

Innovation continues to drive the ethanol industry, focusing on both efficiency and sustainability:

  • Next-Generation Feedstocks: While corn remains dominant, research and development into cellulosic ethanol (derived from agricultural residues, woody biomass, or dedicated energy crops) continues. Although commercial-scale cellulosic production has faced hurdles, advancements could diversify feedstock sources and enhance the carbon intensity profile of ethanol.
  • Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS): Ethanol plants are increasingly exploring CCUS technologies to capture CO2 emissions generated during fermentation. This not only reduces the carbon footprint of ethanol production but also makes it a more attractive option for low-carbon fuel markets and could unlock tax credits and other incentives, enhancing its economic competitiveness.
  • Process Optimization: Ongoing improvements in fermentation, distillation, and plant efficiency continually reduce the energy and water intensity of ethanol production, making it more sustainable and cost-effective.

Policy Uncertainties and Global Trade

The policy environment remains a critical determinant of ethanol’s future:

  • Future of the RFS: The long-term trajectory of the RFS beyond its original statutory deadlines, and the EPA’s approach to setting future RVOs, will profoundly impact domestic demand. Any significant changes or sustained waivers could disrupt market stability.
  • Climate Policies: Broader climate change policies, including carbon pricing mechanisms, low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS) at state or federal levels, and incentives for renewable fuels, will shape the competitive landscape for ethanol.
  • Trade Relations: International trade agreements, tariffs, and geopolitical relations will continue to influence export opportunities for U.S. ethanol, impacting domestic supply-demand balances and prices.

The ethanol industry is navigating a complex transition, balancing its established role in gasoline blending with emerging opportunities in advanced biofuels and decarbonization efforts. The Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark will continue to be a vital tool for tracking these shifts, providing the necessary transparency for market participants to adapt and thrive in an evolving energy landscape.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future with Transparent Benchmarks

The Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark, meticulously assessed and published by S&P Global Platts, stands as an unwavering pillar in the dynamic world of renewable fuels. It is a testament to the power of transparent, independent price assessments in fostering efficiency, liquidity, and integrity across complex commodity markets. From the vast cornfields of the American Midwest to the fuel tanks of vehicles worldwide, this benchmark provides the essential data stream that connects producers, blenders, traders, and policymakers, enabling them to navigate the intricate web of supply, demand, and economic forces that define the ethanol industry.

We have explored how T2 ethanol serves as a critical component in global efforts to decarbonize transportation, driven by environmental mandates and the relentless pursuit of energy independence. We delved into why Chicago, with its strategic location and robust infrastructure, has emerged as the definitive pricing hub. Furthermore, we dissected the rigorous methodology employed by S&P Global Platts to ensure the benchmark’s credibility, highlighting the myriad factors—from corn prices and RFS mandates to logistics and global economic trends—that converge to influence its daily value. The profound impact of this benchmark on investment decisions, risk management strategies, and the overall stability of the biofuel ecosystem underscores its indispensable role.

As the energy transition accelerates, bringing with it both challenges from electrification and opportunities in sustainable aviation fuels and advanced bioproducts, the ethanol market will continue to evolve. Policy shifts, technological advancements, and changing global demand patterns will undoubtedly reshape its future. Yet, through these transformations, the need for reliable and transparent price discovery will remain constant. The Platts Chicago T2 Ethanol benchmark, therefore, will continue to serve as a vital guidepost, empowering market participants with the intelligence required to make informed decisions, adapt to new realities, and contribute to a more sustainable energy future. Its continued accuracy and widespread acceptance ensure that the pulse of the biofuel market will remain clear, strong, and visible to all.

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