BERLIN – In a move radiating with political significance, Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s main opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has embarked on a high-profile trip to China. While not the nation’s Chancellor, Merz’s journey to Beijing and Shanghai is far more than a routine diplomatic courtesy. It is a carefully calibrated act of “shadow diplomacy” that is being intensely scrutinized in Berlin, Brussels, and Washington. As the potential next leader of Europe’s largest economy, Merz’s visit offers a crucial glimpse into the future direction of a relationship that is both deeply lucrative and increasingly fraught with peril, unfolding against a backdrop of intensifying global pressure and a seismic shift in Germany’s own strategic thinking about the Asian superpower.
The trip places Merz at the epicenter of one of the most pressing questions facing modern Germany: how to manage its profound economic interdependence with a China that the current government has officially labeled a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.” For decades, under the chancellorship of the CDU’s own Angela Merkel, the mantra was Wandel durch Handel—”change through trade”—a policy that prioritized economic engagement in the belief it would foster political liberalization in China. That era is definitively over. Merz now walks a political tightrope, tasked with signaling a vision for a future Germany-China policy that reassures the nation’s powerful industrial base while acknowledging the new, stark realities of geopolitical competition and human rights concerns. His every meeting and public statement will be parsed for clues: would a Chancellor Merz pivot back towards Merkel-era pragmatism, or would he forge a new path in alignment with the tougher “de-risking” strategy championed by the current coalition and its international allies?
A High-Stakes Visit: Shadow Diplomacy in Beijing
An opposition leader’s foreign trip is rarely just a sightseeing tour, and Merz’s visit to China is a masterclass in political signaling. By engaging directly with Chinese officials and German business leaders on the ground, he is not only gathering first-hand intelligence but also projecting an image of statesmanship. It is a deliberate move to present himself and his party as a government-in-waiting, capable of managing Germany’s most complex international files with a steady hand.
Who is Friedrich Merz?
To understand the significance of the trip, one must first understand the man at its center. Friedrich Merz is a veteran of German politics, a figure who represents the conservative, pro-business wing of the CDU. After a decade-long hiatus from frontline politics, during which he held high-profile positions in the corporate world, including chairman of the supervisory board for the German division of BlackRock, Merz returned to lead his party in 2022. His political identity is rooted in fiscal conservatism and a strong belief in the power of German industry. This background makes his approach to China particularly complex.
He is not a firebrand hawk, but neither can he ignore the dramatic shift in global perceptions of China that occurred during his time away from Berlin. The CDU/CSU parliamentary bloc he leads is currently polling well ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), making Merz the leading contender for the chancellorship in the next federal election, scheduled for 2025. Consequently, his trip is viewed by Beijing as an opportunity to build a relationship with a potential future leader and to gauge whether a Merz-led government might offer a more business-friendly, less “ideological” alternative to Scholz’s three-party coalition, which includes the more hawkish Green and Free Democrat parties.
The Agenda: More Than Just a Handshake
While the detailed itinerary remains closely guarded, the broad strokes of Merz’s agenda are clear. The primary focus is economic. He is scheduled to meet with representatives of major German corporations operating in China, from automotive giants to chemical conglomerates. These companies are on the front lines of the “de-risking” debate, and their concerns about market access, fair competition, intellectual property protection, and unpredictable regulations will be at the top of Merz’s listening tour. He will seek to understand their challenges directly, gathering ammunition for the political debate back home and formulating his own party’s economic platform.
Beyond economics, the political dimension is inescapable. Merz is expected to meet with high-level Chinese government officials. In these meetings, he will have to perform a delicate balancing act. He will likely emphasize the importance of the economic relationship and the desire for stable, predictable conditions for German businesses. At the same time, to maintain credibility at home and with Western allies, he cannot remain silent on contentious issues. Topics such as China’s position on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan, and the human rights situation in Xinjiang are unavoidable. How he frames these discussions—as a potential partner seeking clarification or a future leader laying down red lines—will be of paramount importance.
The Scholz Doctrine: Navigating the ‘De-Risking’ Dilemma
Merz’s visit does not occur in a vacuum. It is set against the backdrop of a fundamental and, for many, painful, reassessment of Germany’s China policy, orchestrated by the current government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This shift represents a decisive break from the past and provides the crucial context for Merz’s actions.
From ‘Wandel durch Handel’ to Strategic Reassessment
For sixteen years, Angela Merkel’s chancellorship was defined by an intensely pragmatic approach to China. Germany’s export-oriented economy boomed on the back of Chinese demand, and German corporations invested billions, making China an indispensable pillar of their global strategy. The underlying belief was that economic integration would inevitably lead to political and social reform within China. This policy, Wandel durch Handel, was the bedrock of the relationship, making Germany China’s most important partner in Europe.
However, under President Xi Jinping, China has moved in the opposite direction. Instead of liberalizing, it has become more authoritarian at home and more assertive abroad. The suppression of dissent in Hong Kong, the systematic human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and the increasingly aggressive military posture towards Taiwan shattered the illusions that underpinned the Merkel-era approach. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine further exposed the dangers of over-reliance on autocratic states for critical supply chains and energy, accelerating the German rethink.
Germany’s Official China Strategy
This soul-searching culminated in July 2023 with the publication of the German government’s first-ever comprehensive “Strategy on China.” The 64-page document marked a historic turning point. It formally codified the new understanding of China as simultaneously a partner on global issues like climate change, a competitor in the economic and technological spheres, and a systemic rival that promotes an alternative model to liberal democracy.
The strategy’s central operational concept is “de-risking, not decoupling.” Chancellor Scholz has repeatedly stressed that Germany does not seek to sever its economic ties with China. However, it aims to reduce critical dependencies in key sectors, such as raw materials, batteries, and semiconductors. The strategy calls for diversifying trade partners, strengthening domestic capabilities, and applying greater scrutiny to Chinese investments in critical German infrastructure. This nuanced policy was the product of a difficult compromise within Scholz’s coalition. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s Green Party and Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats pushed for a much tougher, values-based stance, while Scholz’s own SPD, mindful of the economic consequences and union jobs, advocated for a more cautious approach. The resulting document reflects this internal tension, creating a policy that is still being tested and defined in practice.
A Divided Landscape: German Industry and Politics at a Crossroads
The official government strategy is one thing; the reality on the ground for Germany’s economic titans and the political calculations within Merz’s own party is another. This deep-seated division is the fault line that Merz must navigate on his trip.
The Voice of German Business
For Germany’s globally-oriented industrial sector, China is not an abstract concept of “systemic rivalry”; it is the single most important market in the world. The German automotive industry, the crown jewel of the economy, sells roughly one-third of its cars in China. Volkswagen, for instance, considers China its “second home market,” and the profits generated there fund its transition towards electric mobility. Similarly, chemical giant BASF is investing €10 billion in a new state-of-the-art Verbund site in Zhanjiang, its largest single investment ever, betting its future growth on the Chinese market.
From the perspective of these corporate boardrooms, the political rhetoric of “de-risking” emanating from Berlin and Brussels is a source of profound anxiety. They fear that a more confrontational political stance could lead to retaliation from Beijing, jeopardizing market access and putting them at a disadvantage against international competitors. They argue that a physical presence in China is essential not only for sales but also for innovation, as the country is a leading hub for key technologies like battery production and artificial intelligence. These powerful corporate interests form a formidable lobby, and their message to politicians like Merz is clear: do not sacrifice decades of investment and market leadership at the altar of geopolitics.
The CDU’s Tightrope Walk
Friedrich Merz’s own Christian Democratic Union is a microcosm of this national dilemma. The party of Angela Merkel is, in many ways, the architect of the deep economic integration with China. Its identity is closely tied to the success of German industry and the Mittelstand—the small and medium-sized enterprises that form the backbone of the economy, many of which are also deeply embedded in supply chains linked to China.
However, the party also contains a growing chorus of foreign policy and security experts who are deeply skeptical of the old approach. Influential figures within the CDU, like foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen, have long called for a more clear-eyed and tougher stance on China, arguing that Germany has been naive for too long. They advocate for solidarity with Taiwan, stronger human rights conditionality, and a more robust defense of liberal-democratic values. Merz, as party leader, must bridge this divide. His trip can be seen as an attempt to do just that: to demonstrate to the pro-business wing that he understands their concerns and will champion their interests, while simultaneously gathering the information needed to craft a more modern, realistic China policy that satisfies the security-conscious faction of his party.
The Geopolitical Backdrop: Navigating a Fractured World
Germany’s internal debate over China is not happening in isolation. It is profoundly shaped by immense external pressures, primarily from its key allies, and the rapidly deteriorating global security environment.
The American Factor: Transatlantic Alignment vs. German Interests
The United States, under both the Trump and Biden administrations, has defined strategic competition with China as the primary challenge of the 21st century. Washington has been exerting consistent pressure on its European allies, including Germany, to adopt a more confrontational approach. This pressure manifests in several areas: strict export controls on advanced technology like semiconductors to prevent their use by the Chinese military, calls for screening outbound investment into China, and a general push to reduce Western reliance on Chinese supply chains.
For Berlin, this creates an acute dilemma. The transatlantic alliance remains the bedrock of German security, especially in the wake of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Germany cannot afford to alienate Washington. However, the American economic and German economic realities differ starkly. While the U.S. and Chinese economies are intertwined, Germany’s export-driven model is far more dependent on the Chinese market. A full-blown economic decoupling, as advocated by some in Washington, would be catastrophic for German prosperity. Therefore, German leaders, including Merz, are constantly searching for a “third way”—a policy that maintains transatlantic solidarity on core security issues while preserving Germany’s vital economic interests, a path that often frustrates policymakers in Washington.
Europe’s Search for a Unified Voice
The challenge is further complicated by the search for a common European position. The European Union, led by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, has adopted the same “de-risking” language as Berlin. The EU has launched anti-subsidy investigations into Chinese electric vehicles and is developing tools to counter economic coercion. Yet, unity remains elusive.
Member states have vastly different economic exposures and political priorities concerning China. Countries in Southern and Eastern Europe, eager for Chinese investment through the Belt and Road Initiative, often have a softer view. French President Emmanuel Macron has championed the idea of European “strategic autonomy,” urging the continent to avoid being drawn into a U.S.-China conflict over issues like Taiwan. As the EU’s undisputed economic leader, Germany’s policy choices have a disproportionate impact on the bloc’s overall direction. A clear and consistent German strategy is a prerequisite for a coherent European one, making Merz’s exploratory mission and the policy he ultimately formulates all the more consequential.
What Merz Hopes to Achieve: Signals and Substance
Ultimately, Merz’s trip to China is an investment in his own political future and a down payment on a potential future German foreign policy. Its success will be measured not in immediate agreements, but in the signals it sends and the understanding it fosters.
Reassuring Business, Gauging Intentions
On a substantive level, the visit is a crucial fact-finding mission. By speaking directly with German executives in Shanghai and Beijing, Merz can get an unvarnished assessment of the business climate, moving beyond sanitized reports and official statistics. He can hear their concerns about the increasingly challenging political environment, the rise of local competitors, and the growing pressure to localize data and technology. Simultaneously, his meetings with Chinese officials are a chance to gauge their intentions. Is there room for pragmatic cooperation, or is the era of “systemic rivalry” an unalterable reality? The answers to these questions will be invaluable in shaping the CDU’s platform for the 2025 election.
Crafting a Post-Scholz China Policy
On a political level, the trip is about positioning. Merz is signaling to the German electorate that he is a serious foreign policy player. He is also sending a nuanced message to Beijing: a future CDU-led government will be a reliable and pragmatic partner, but it will also operate within the new strategic framework that recognizes China as a competitor and rival. He may be hinting at a policy that is less driven by the values-based foreign policy of the Greens but more clear-eyed and assertive than the mercantilism of the late Merkel years.
This potential “Merz Doctrine” on China would likely be a hybrid: a robust defense of German economic interests combined with a firm commitment to the transatlantic alliance and a sober acknowledgment of security risks. It would seek to carve out space for cooperation where possible, while preparing for competition where necessary.
As Friedrich Merz navigates the corridors of power in Beijing, he carries with him the weight of Germany’s economic future and its geopolitical identity. His journey is a reflection of a nation in transition, struggling to reconcile a legacy of profitable engagement with a future of uncertain competition. The simple truth is that there are no easy answers for Germany. The path of full-throated confrontation risks economic ruin, while a return to naive engagement risks strategic vulnerability. Merz’s visit will not resolve this fundamental tension. But it is a clear indication that the debate over Germany’s place in a world defined by the U.S.-China rivalry is at the very top of the political agenda, and the opposition is already preparing its answer for how it would lead.
